Here’s how Sri Lanka can dramatically pip Australia to make WTC 2025 Final

After losing to Australia in the fifth Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT 2024-25), India’s dreams of reaching the World Test Championship 2025 (WTC) final were dashed. Australia joined them by winning the BGT by a score of 3-1, while South Africa was the first team to advance to the WTC 2025 finals after defeating Pakistan in the first Test.

Prior to the Sydney fifth Test, India had a remote possibility of making it to the WTC final.

They had to win the Test match in the New Year and hope that either Australia and Sri Lanka would have a series without any results or that Sri Lanka would win the series easily. At Lord’s, Australia and South Africa will undoubtedly compete for the coveted title, but there is hope for Sri Lanka.

They could reach WTC if the combinations and permutations work out, which would be nothing short of a miracle. In the points table, Australia has a 63.73 percent point percentage. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, or the West Indies cannot pass the Australians and eliminate them from the championship game. India already has a points percentage of 50, so even if Sri Lanka wins 2-0, their points % will still be 57.02, and Sri Lanka’s points would rise to 53.85, which would still put Australia ahead.

If Australia receives a points punishment for continuing to play at a slow over rate in the forthcoming series, Sri Lanka may hope for a miracle. If Sri Lanka wins the series 2-0, they might defeat Australia and go to the WTC 2025 finals in June with a total of eight points from two Test matches. The Australians’ main concerns are either being obliged to field for longer periods of time and adhere to the slow over rate, or bowling long stretches of spin on the winding Sri Lankan pitches.

World Test Championship 2023-25 Points Table: