India v South Africa – All Eyes on Spin and Powerplays

The women’s squad from South Africa wrote their greatest victory to date on October 29, 2025. One day later, India Women had what was likely the best day in their cricketing history. Both, however, are still one step away from the final reward.

A little more than a year ago, Australia and England did not play in the Women’s T20 World Cup final, which had never happened in the competition’s nine existence. Since the ODI World Cup 2025 has thrown up the identical historic first, the trophy will go to a new team, either South Africa or India.

India has had a more difficult journey than the other squad. They were in danger of being eliminated after losing three straight games to the eventual semifinalists before defeating New Zealand in Navi Mumbai. The hosts answered with a memorable run-chase, and defeating seven-time champion Australia in the semifinals would have required an incredible performance.

In contrast, South Africa has witnessed everything. In the league phase, they had five consecutive victories in between devastating batting collapses against Australia (97 all-out) and England (69 all-out). Nadine de Klerk and Chloe Tryon saved them against India and Bangladesh, respectively, but the other four victories—including the semifinal—were resounding.

In head-to-head ODIs, India leads 20–13, which is even more astounding after that devastating loss in the 2022 tournament (5–1).

However, South Africa’s depth in all areas, which India had already witnessed earlier in the campaign, balances things out before the championship game.

At the top, firepower

In 2025, Smriti Mandhana and Pratika Rawal (1557 at 77.85) and Tazmin Brits and Laura Wolvaardt (1120 at 74.66) became the only two batting couples to ever score 1000+ runs in a single calendar year. Mandhana is familiar with Shafali Varma at the other end, and his five-ball stint at the crease in the semifinal suggests a new, aggressive style of play, while Pratika has been sidelined by injury.

The Brits’ run of extremes may scare them, but South Africa’s semi-final victory was made possible by a 116-run opening stand. Four hundreds, 55* and 45-run scores, and five single-digit scores, including three ducks, have been recorded in her previous 11 ODI innings. That factor is what causes the two teams’ opening partnership statistics and run-rate in the tournament’s first ten overs to differ from one another.

Average opening partnership run-rates for each team in the competition

Team-wise Overs 1-10 tournament batting

Kapp is the best seam-bowler in South Africa.

The only seam attack in the championship to have scored fewer than five runs per over (ER: 4.66) is South Africa’s, with an average of 27 that is only slightly higher than Pakistan’s (26.11), who only played four games in Colombo under more bowling-friendly conditions. Under Marizanne Kapp’s leadership, they have been particularly excellent with the new ball, giving up at a mere 3.81 (pace and spin combined, 3.41 for quicks). The bowlers from India have a phase average of 4.86, which is the second-worst in the competition.

Team-wise bowling throughout the tournament’s Overs 1–10

With an average of 13.89 and an economy of 3.14, Kapp has taken 19 wickets in the opening 10 overs of ODIs since 2024, more than any other bowler. He is the only player in the event to have reached 130 kmph or more. She has a strong record against India as well, taking 24 wickets in as many games while giving up 3.72 runs, and she upset the England top order in Wednesday’s semi-final. She also faces off against India’s batting mainstays, which is a tremendous matchup. I’ll talk more about that later.

In contrast, India has struggled in the seam-bowling department, and the disparity between the two assaults is concerning when facing more formidable opponents. If the hosts bowl second in the final, it could be detrimental because spinners have had trouble at the site under the lights.

Seam bowling statistics for games with just the semi-finalists

The recommendation for Indian seamen: keep things simple and direct

Wolvaardt is a formidable off-side player, particularly when facing pace, and her thunderous cover drive is a notable aspect of her batting. She presently leads the tournament run-scoring rankings by a considerable margin. The competition’s backward point zones and covers have accounted for half of her runs against pace (50.5%), and statistics also indicate that straighter lines have hampered the right-hander.

Seam versus Wolvaardt in the competition (by lines)

Not where the ball pitched, but rather in relation to stumps or impact, are the lines stated above.

Additionally, the Wolvaardt has only managed 7 off 42 and has been struck out twice by seamers’ balls that were forecast to strike the stumps. South Africa’s batting lineup has been far weaker than India’s, notwithstanding the Indians’ outstanding performance against such deliveries. It is easier for India to design this line of attack because they don’t have a left-hander in the lineup.

At CWC 2025, batting vs balls that are predicted to strike the stumps from seamers

Under the lights, the difficulties and spin to win

With a strike-rate of 93.14 (second only to Australia’s 96) and an average of 45.47, India has been the competition’s finest batting outfit against spin. South Africa is the only side in the competition without a single left-hander bat, as seen by their respective equivalent scores of 27.37 and 89.11. In their tournament opener, Linsey Smith (3/7) and Sophie Ecclestone (2/19) lost to spinners who turned the ball away, and subsequently, Alana King (7/18).

Despite Kapp hitting a four and a six in her opening over, Shree Charani (1/37 in 10 overs) was the only player to keep the score low during the match between these two teams earlier in the competition. Radha Yadav has taken Sneh Rana’s position in the starting lineup, giving India extra left-arm spin.

The competition has shown that spinners have performed better in the first innings (average: 23.12, ER: 4.63) than the second (average: 38.91, ER: 5.08), and this trend has continued in Navi Mumbai. In the semi-final, the Australian spinners bowled (or gave up) the highest runs in an ODI without taking a wicket, returning 0/157 in 23.3 overs.

The tournament’s Navi Mumbai spinners (by innings number)

In contrast, seamers have performed better with the new ball at the venue under the lights, averaging 23.80 and giving up 3.83 in the first 10 overs, compared to 47.66 and 4.93 in the first innings, respectively.

Is India capable of winning the left-arm spin challenge?

Although India’s mid-campaign slump began against South Africa’s left-arm spin pair of Nonkululeko Mlaba and Tryon, who returned 5/78 between them in 20 overs, they have utterly crushed the spinners of New Zealand and Australia in their last two full performances. India struggled from 55/0 in 10 overs to 102/6 at the end of the 26th, with a late-inning score of 2.93.

In her 123-match ODI career, Tryon has completed her 10-over quota 16 times, including that 15th time. On Sunday, the spin-twins might be the powerful weapons once more. In the format, Shafali Verma has amassed 84 from 121 with five dismissals (Avg: 16.8, SR: 69.42) against left-arm spin. Harmanpreet Kaur and the in-form Mandhana have both struggled recently. Although the stroke had cost Rodrigues the event earlier, she has so far used the sweeps (conventional and reverse) to good effect.

Left-arm spin against India’s batters (since the WI series in December 2024)

India’s problems in the field

Since 2024, India has amassed an incredible 78 catches in 35 ODIs (catching efficiency: 66.2%); they are 30 runs ahead of the next-highest total. So far, that has been a recurrent element in their campaign. Fielding has frequently made the difference between victories and defeats, and even the powerful nation of Australia was not immune to it during the semifinals.

During her time at the crease, Jemimah Rodrigues received four reprieves, including two rather simple opportunities. In Women’s ODIs, where ball-by-ball statistics has been available since 2013, that is the joint-most dropped catches for any batter against Australia. Amy Jones also had that many at the Junction Oval in Melbourne in January of this year.