The Asia Cup 2025’s Group B is in a difficult spot right now. Afghanistan lost by a slim margin to Bangladesh, putting them in a do-or-die situation after beginning their campaign with a victory over Hong Kong. On Thursday, September 18, in Abu Dhabi, they play Sri Lanka in their final group-stage match, which will determine not only their own fate but also Bangladesh’s.
Afghanistan put up a brilliant display against Hong Kong, winning by an overwhelming 94 runs. They gained two points from that victory, and their net run rate (NRR), which is currently positive 2.150, increased significantly. However, the Rashid Khan-led team shown flashes of genius in their second match against Bangladesh, where they were chasing 155. They had some home runs thanks to Azmatullah Omarzai’s 30, but the Litton Das-led squad won by eight runs as Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed’s death bowling held the opposition to 146.
Afghanistan now has two points from two games after that defeat, therefore victory over Sri Lanka is essential. Bangladesh, however, has won two of its last three games and lost the third. Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are competing for two Super Four slots, while Hong Kong has already been eliminated.
Situations for qualification
First scenario: If Sri Lanka prevails
Despite their dismal NRR, Bangladesh will qualify as the second team with four points, while Sri Lanka will finish with six points and lead the group if they defeat Afghanistan by any margin. Afghanistan will go out with just two points after that.
Second scenario: Afghanistan prevails
The group will end in a three-way tie with all three teams finishing on four points if Afghanistan defeats Sri Lanka. Net run rate thus becomes the decisive element. Afghanistan already has the best NRR, thus any victory would improve its standing, and a victory will ensure that it advances to the Super Four.
Notably, unless the loss is severe, Sri Lanka is on the verge of qualifying due to their healthy NRR. Sri Lanka’s NRR may fall below Bangladesh’s, eliminating them, if Afg defeats them by more than 70 runs or chases down the target with more than 50 balls remaining.
Bangladesh is also in the weakest situation. Afgn must defeat Sri Lanka by a significant margin in order to proceed. Bangladesh can only make it into the Super Four if Sri Lanka’s NRR drops below negative 0.270.
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